The future is one of the most fascinating and talked about topics of today. You can see how the future is practiced on a daily basis as people plan events and develop business projects on a global dimension. Understanding the future is no longer achieved by performing magic or reading someone’s palm, but is now recognized as a social science that can be identified as Strategic Foresight, Future and Future Studies (just to name a few), and it becomes an instrument in the development of new concepts and ideas in the fields of nanotechnology, neurotechnology, biotechnology and electronic technology for the future.

One of the tools derived from prospective or strategic planning is called Assumption-Based Planning (ABP). This tool can be used to help people and planners from all walks of life recognize and incorporate assumptions into a plan in times of great uncertainty. James Dewar defines ABP as “a tool designed to improve the robustness and adaptability of plans, reducing the number of avoidable surprises in any plan or planning.” You may be wondering right now how assumption-based planning can fit your future. The key is knowing how to recognize assumptions through creative thinking and include assumptions in your plans to avoid surprises that could destroy your plans. This article will demonstrate how assumption-based planning can become a tool to get around the element of surprise and use creative thinking and planning in developing your own PBL.

 

Origin of ABP

Rand Corporation developed the ABP in 1990 to assist the US Army in trend-based planning. James A. Dewar explains that PBL is a “post-planning” tool (recognizing that planning is an iterative process) that focuses on the assumption that there are possibilities in which a plan may fail; prepare for alternatives that affect a plan already developed. “Specifically, the ABP works to reduce the risks posed by the assumptions.” ABP originated as a five-step plan that defines ways that a plan could fail. Dewar maps the assumptions below.

          

Step 1 – Load bearing and vulnerable assumptions: The load bearing assumption is like a load bearing beam; Take it out and the ceiling will collapse. The vulnerable assumption is one that could fail within the expected life of the plan. Both cases can resort to an alternative plan.

Step 2 – In a broken assumption, the hedging action sets the planner for failure.

Step 3 – Signposts – Warning signs that can be used to monitor assumptions that are likely to lead to surprises.

Step 4 – Shaping Actions – Help assumptions develop to the satisfaction of planners.

Step 5 – Hedging Actions – Prepares the planner for the possibility that the assumption will fail despite efforts to insure it.

 

Today’s world leaders must consider the ever-changing global environment and incorporate assumptions into their strategic forward-looking planning. On a personal level, parents and children can learn to develop a PBL using the Dewar model, which can prepare them to create and incorporate assumptions in developing a future plan for their activities, events, and their future. On a personal dimension, let’s visualize how an ABP can be applied to a family reunion event.

 

Forecasting a family plan using an ABP

Let’s take PBL to a personal level by using the imagination and creative abilities of family members who will be planning a family reunion. Imagine that your family is planning a family reunion one year from today. This is the plan; incorporate assumptions into your publishing plan to develop a plan that ‘could’ satisfy family satisfaction. Here are the assumptions:

• Consider family members who need to ask employers for time off, which employers may not grant.
• Consider travel costs above a person’s budget.
• Consider the additional expenses each family will incur in the event of an unexpected emergency and cancel your travel plans.
• Consider the donations needed from each family to cover meeting expenses and family members cannot supply. Will you pay his bill?
• Consider the possibility that some family members cancel at the last minute.
• Consider family members who do not contribute financially and need to be confronted.
• Consider whether hotel accommodation meets the standards of family members.
• Consider if meeting plans don’t suit all age groups.
• Consider health or food restrictions.
• Consider the local health professionals available in an emergency.
• Consider activities for children and adults.

I think you are seeing the image of an ABP. You are taking all possible and probable causes and creating assumed behaviors and / or actions that could alter a strategic forward-looking plan. If you write the Dewar model and are a visual learner, the model can be turned into a visible table that can benefit both the planner and family members. By taking the location as part of the assumptions process, the ABP helps identify the ‘what ifs’ for the meeting’s ABP. Consider some of the assumptions in the following example:

• Vulnerable load bearing – location provides indoor and outdoor events
• Bad assumptions: the location is vulnerable to inclement weather and power outages
• Signpost – Family reads past customer reviews
• Shaping Actions – The family asks the location manager to guarantee the generator in the event of a power outage.
• Coverage actions: the family reserves the backup generator in case there is a 24-hour cancellation allowance.

 conclusion

People use PBL on a daily basis and do not realize the creative skills involved in the assumption process. From the personal spectrum to the business environment, the PBL is an adaptable instrument that can benefit those who use the plan. Regardless of the structure of a leadership environment, be it top-down or flat initiatives, leaders, corporate executives, and ordinary people can tailor the PBL process to their daily agenda. Cornish wrote about the lessons learned from great explorers like Lewis and Clark, for example, in his book. He mentioned how these famous explorers used maps and ‘rumors’ about the territory to develop their expedition. There may have been a prototype of an PBL in their plans that allowed them to consider assumptions and avoid failures to successfully complete their ventures. Whatever the case, they were able to succeed and fulfill the task assigned to them.

Can an ABP tool work for you? Do you have the ability and imagination to incorporate presumptive planning into your daily agendas, work plans, strategic plans? The Book of Jeremiah, chapter 29, verse 11 in the Old Testament says: “For I know the plans that ‘I have for you’ declares the Lord, ‘plans for well-being and not for calamity to give you a future and a hope. .. “If we can inspire ourselves so that our plans can be successful, then tools like PBL can help us make our dreams come true. I like to compare the ABP with an apple, you can count the seeds of an apple, but can you count the apples that will come out of the seeds when they are planted and bear fruit? Creativity and imagination will shape the future of successful planning tools.