Weihnachtsgans with chestnut filling … rotkraut … salzkartoffeln … plus a steamed and roasted entity and, of course, a ham.

And don’t forget the mustard, scharfer senf.

Yes … I’m still thinking about the Christmas dinner I prepared for family and friends a week ago.

As you can see, I decided to go entirely in Deutsch. My family on my father’s side came from Ländle (“dear land” in the local dialect) of Baden-Württemberg in the 1860s, passing through Baltimore.

Sometimes I hear those ancestors calling me, as I learned they could do when I lived in Africa. You don’t hear their voices, of course; You only get a feeling That is their language. This year, they said: “Gans zu Weihnachten, von Jungen!”

The most important thing I have learned from my German ancestors is this: nothing is permanent. Eventually, change will come. When you live in the middle of European history, it is inevitable.

You better be prepared.

To honor the wisdom of my ancestors, here are my predictions for 2018.

I’m not Nostradamus, but I’m going to take a chance and make some calls for Wall Street 2018 based on evidence, logic … and history. And we have the whole year to see how it goes …

Here it goes …

Wall Street First Quarter

There will be a strong stock market recovery after the holidays, as US tax-sensitive sectors such as retail and telecommunications will start to post big gains thanks to tax cuts and strong holiday sales. Combined with positive economic indicators and political vertigo over the approval of the tax law, all systems are going for 2018 … at least, at the beginning.

Congressional Republicans are making rapid progress on their legislative agenda, especially cuts to Social Security and Medicare, as they are increasingly concerned about their control in Congress after November.

Bitcoin suffers a huge correction after swinging wildly in the last 10 days of December. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has added the discussion about bitcoin to its next ministerial meeting. The Chinese are cracking down. For these and other reasons, sometime in the next three months we will see a sell off as newcomers panic and sell. Long-term investors will stay in bitcoin and it will rise again, but will not revisit their December highs.

Wall Street Second Quarter

Initially, there will be a continued rebound in the markets as the tax cuts begin to take effect on the paycheck level and consumer confidence improves. But signs of doubt are beginning to appear in the market as US macroeconomic indicators begin to weaken, especially employment figures.

Congressional Republicans continue to seek a series of quick legislative victories, but progress comes to a halt as Robert Mueller’s investigation into President Donald Trump’s ties to Russia reaches a climax, either due to a round of indictments from prominent figures. or because Trump fires Mueller. Either way, the stock market reacts badly, with a series of wild swings as investors wait to see how things go.

Wall Street Third Quarter

As the fallout from the Trump-Mueller issue continues, several new allegations come to light. The US market begins to slide as the prospect of a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate grows in November. The fear is not of specific policy changes … but of greater political instability.

Because of this, the Federal Reserve is forced to pass on the promised rate increases. A coalition of countries files a World Trade Organization action against the US Due to the provisions of the new US tax law.

The dollar begins to weaken significantly. The price of gold begins to rise.

Wall Street Fourth Quarter

As the November elections approach, there is a drop in US equities. Volatility increases markedly up to the election itself. Gold continues to rise.

In the immediate aftermath of the election, and regardless of the outcome, markets stabilize, but at a lower level, leading to annual equity index earnings for 2018 of half or less than for 2017. Subsequently, one develops. of two scenarios:

• A Democratic takeover of one or both houses of Congress initiates a prolonged period of market uncertainty, with no clear winners or losers. Investors know the tax bill will not be reversed, but the prospect of Democratic committee investigations into the Trump administration increases instability and causes many US corporations to postpone their investment plans in the meantime.

• The Republican retention of the House and Senate stabilizes the markets, but more explosive revelations / accusations emerge against the Trump administration, increasing the political temperature as the year ends.

A final prediction

So there you have it. I think it will be an interesting year on Wall Street. I am surprised that there is no more talk about the effects on the market of the 2018 elections. But they will be the great story of the year.